5/02/2014

Discover Quality Change of U.S Postsecondary Institutions from 1990 to 2010 (econometric model)



      Each school has some unique characteristics that influence its education quality and sometimes it is nearly impossible to collect data which reflect such differences.[1] However, if we neglect them and do the regression, we would get biased results because these unobserved variables affect quality and expenditure decisions of an institution. To cope with omitted variable bias, we can use fixed effect model provided we have a panel data and assume that these characteristics are constant over years. Namely, we collect data from the same institutions in different time periods, factor out unobserved yet constant variables over time for each school, and get unbiased results.
      I assumed that the size and reputation of an institution are constant over time. These two characteristics can affect expenditure of a school: a school with larger size might consider hiring more administrative staff, spending more on facility maintenance and so on. A school not that well-known might want to spend more to send a signal to market that it is of high quality[2]. That reputation remains constant over years is a little bit strong assumption: Emory University and New York Universities are counter-examples that become academically famous over the past two decades. Some people might also argue that according to college ranking released annually by US News & World Report, many schools have had ups and downs (Wake Forest, University of Rochester, etc.), and such fluctuation should imply that academic reputation changes quickly over time. However, in terms of college ranking, academic reputation is not the sole consideration. Factors like retention rate, matriculation rate, rejection rate and endowment income all take some weights over time, and institutions to some extent are capable of manipulating them. [3] So college ranking at best partly reflects academic reputation. In addition, considering that the data set has over 3000 institutions, a few noted exception will not jeopardize the assumption.


[1] For example, University of Chicago is known for its intellectual atmosphere, which has positive effect on educating promising students, but such impact is hard to be quantified in data.
[2] In a perfectly competitive market, higher price of a product means higher cost of inputs, which indicates inputs are of good quality. However, Gerstner (1985) found that empirically for many products the relation between price and quality is weak.

[3] Factor weights vary over years, so an institution can experience rank fluctuation with no intrinsic change. (Cornell) Besides, some critics contend that the ranking undervalues public universities because their endowment revenue is small, and one piece of evidence is that top 20 schools in the ranking are all private. As for factor manipulation, an example is that institutions can attract more applications by posting lower application standards on website to increase rejection rate. For a more detailed and entertaining discussion, refer to Tuition Rising by Ronald Ehrenberg. ( 978-0674009882)

No comments:

Post a Comment