Where have all the criminals gone?

The decline in crime that began in the early 1990s in America was accompanied bu a blistering national economy and a significant drop in unemployment. But though it's true that a stronger job market may make certain crimes relatively less attractive, that is only the case for crimes with a direct financial motivation---burglary, robbery, and auto theft---as opposed to violent crimes like homicide, assault and rape.Data show that an unemployment decline of 1% accounts for a 1% decrease in nonviolent crime. But there is no strong link between strong economy and drop in violent rate.


The evidence linking increased punishment with lower crime rates is very strong. But it is not entirely true.

Reason: A fundamental confusion of correlation and causality. The reason why there are more prisoners in the jail is because more people commit crimes. Besides, jails are not cheap.

The explanation that crime rate drop because of the implement of capital punishment is wrong.
(1) The death execution is rare so that it doesn't deter the crimers too much
(2) Data shows that executing one criminal translate into 7 fewer homicides that the criminal might have committed. Even though the implement can only account for 25% of the drop in homicides in the 1990s.

Does merely increasing the number of police reduce the crime? YES.
Innovative policing strategies: hunt down small crimes because if they are not punished appropriately the criminals will commit larger crimes. But again, this is not the main reason why crime rate dropped so significantly in 1990s.


Reason: the new strategy was implemented in 1994, but the crime rate had already been dropping since 1990; the increase of police offset the contribution of innovative strategy.Also, crime rate went down everywhere, even the place that didn't implement the new strategy.

The most dramatic effect of legalized abortion was its impact on crime. Legalized abortion led to less unwantedness; unwantedness leads to high crimes; legalized abortion, therefore, led to less crime.