Rational people respond to trade-offs and to incentives. When the costs or benefits of something change, people change their behavior. Rational people think--not always consciously--about the future as well as the present as they try to anticipate likely consequences of their actions in an uncertain world.
So what are the costs, benefits, and likely consequences of a blow job?
Regular sex is more costly than it used to be because of the spread of HIV/AIDS. AIDS is more likely to be spread by regular sex than by oral sex.
Oral sex isn't a symptom of more promiscuous teenagers. In fact, it's a sign that teenagers are behaving more responsibly, in enthusiastically--and rationally--choosing an alternative to riskier sex.
Cost is not just about money. The cost of sex includes the risk of AIDS and the risk of unwanted pregnancy; if that cost rises, you will tend to choose a safer kind of sex. Your total "budget" isn't just the cash in your bank account, it also encompasses your time, energy, talent and attention.
The endowment effect: People suddenly value objects more highly simply because they own them. They won't trade even when logic suggests they should.
The incapacitation effect: When the someone is in prison, he can't rob your house.
Where the adult courts were notably more severe than the juvenile courts, the difference in behavior was sharp: Crime dropped dramatically once kids reached the age of majority. Where the juvenile courts were relatively harsh, the drop didn't happen, because kids were already frightened of contact with the justice system.
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